Phillies playoff preview!

I know that if I really analyze the Phillies’ statistics this year, there would be a lot to be concerned about heading into the National League Division Series battle with the Colorado Rockies.

However, I am going to look on the bright side, and remember that the Phillies are the defending World Series champions, and haven’t let me down in exactly two years - coincidentally against the Colorado Rockies in the National League Division Series.

Yes, I could choose to look at the fact that Brad Lidge has blown 11 saves this year. Also, the fact that Ryan Madson has blown six saves while filling in for Lidge does not inspire confidence. In contrast, Huston Street has saved 35 games for the Rockies, blowing just two save opportunities all season. Before even getting to Lidge or Madson, the Phillies will be without J.C. Romero, who was dominant last season in the playoffs, and would be the first man to come through the bullpen door if a tough lefty were at the plate. Brett Myers and Chan Ho Park, two pitchers who were penciled in to be key bullpen components, are also injured.

Looking at the starting pitching, I could point to Cliff Lee’s 5.59 ERA in September, or the 10 runs that Joe Blanton has given up in his last two starts, if I really wanted to dwell on the negatives.

Wow, people could really drive themselves crazy thinking about all of the things that could go wrong and all of the reasons that the Rockies will quickly bounce the Phillies from the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. But, instead of thinking about all of the bad things, remember that the Phillies are the defending the World Series champions. Everyone except Raul Ibanez and Cliff Lee know exactly what it takes to get to the World Series, and more importantly, win the whole thing.

With that, here are some thoughts and statistics that should inspire confidence heading into the NLDS:

* Cole Hamels loves pitching in big games, as we saw last year, when he went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five postseason starts. He also has surrendered just two home runs in his last eight starts, which shows that he is keeping the ball down in the zone. In his previous nine starts, Hamels struggled with his control, and surrendered 11 home runs in the process.

* J.A. Happ has been successful in both the bullpen and the rotation, so no matter where he ends up, expect good things from the potential National League Rookie of the Year. Out of the bullpen, Happ went 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA, and as a starter, he was 10-4 with a 2.99 ERA, so whichever role Charlie Manuel chooses for Happ, it should be considered a point of strength.

* The Rockies’ bats are worse against left-handed pitchers compared to when they face righties. The Phillies could potentially send Hamels, Lee and Happ to the hill in the first three games, and watch the Rockies struggle to get on base. The Rockies line (batting average/slugging percent/OPS) against righties is .264/.445/.791, but against lefties, it is .253/.430/.765.

* In six head-to-head games this season, the Phillies’ bats greatly outperformed the Rockies’ bats, hitting .302, compared to Colorado hitting just .251 against the Phillies pitchers. In those six games, Chase Utley hit .421, Jayson Werth hit .391, and every Phillies starter hit at least .286, except for Ryan Howard, who hit .250. In comparison, most of the Rockies’ big names struggled, with Todd Helton and Clint Barmes each hitting .190, while Troy Tulowitzki hit just .200 in the six games.

Overall, I know that there is a lot to be concerned about, but these are the defending World Series Champions, and when they are firing on all cylinders, nobody can beat them, and as we have seen throughout this season, even when guys are struggling, they still were winning games.

Bold predictions:

* Hamels and Lee each pitch at least seven innings games 1 and 2.

* Pedro Martinez will validate my midseason prediction that he will be dominant out of the bullpen.

* Antonio Bastardo will be this year’s version of K-Rod from the 2002 World Series champion Anaheim Angels.

* No goalie controversy for the Flyers this year! (Sorry, I love hockey!)

* Phillies in four, setting up a showdown with the St. Louis Cardinals.

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Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will discuss the Eagles’ matchup with the Buccaneers, and talk about where the Phillies stand after two playoff games.