Pedro is starting now, closing later?

The Phillies’ lead in the National League East was trimmed nearly in half as the team spent a nice August weekend melting down on both sides of the ball. Against the pesky Florida Marlins, the hitters couldn’t make contact, and the pitchers (sans Joe Blanton) showed why reinforcements like Pedro Martinez and Brett Myers are necessary additions for the stretch run.

We all know that Martinez was signed to be a starting pitcher, but that was before the Phillies essentially stole reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee from the Cleveland Indians.

If I had to bet on it, I think Pedro will make several starts for the Phillies, but his ultimate spot on this team will be in the bullpen. In addition, I have a funny feeling that Pedro and Myers will be a devastating 1-2 punch in the late innings in September and October, similar to Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge last season, but more on that later.

Starting with Pedro, I don’t think he will be a huge upgrade over Jamie Moyer. This season, Moyer has been the definition of inconsistent, alternating between good start and bad start for the last two months, on his way to a 5.47 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, all while averaging less than six innings per start.

A lot of people are expecting Pedro to put up much better numbers than the 46-year-old Moyer, but in reality, I don’t expect him to be a dominant starter.

In 2008, Pedro made 20 starts, and threw longer than six innings just three times, posting a 5.61 ERA, with a 1.57 WHIP, while averaging 5.5 innings per start. Those numbers are eerily similar to Moyer’s 2009 campaign.

Delving deeper into Pedro’s numbers last season, compared to the first three innings, his stats plummeted in the fourth through sixth innings. In the middle trio of innings, his strikeouts-per-inning were way down, while his walks, batting average against, and slugging percentage against were much worse compared to early in the game.

In fact, his strikeouts-to-walk ratio was 2.88 in the first three innings of his starts, but just 1.44 in the next three innings, and all of the numbers were even worse in the seventh inning.

This statistical trend is the complete opposite of the work Pedro did with the Mets in 2005 and 2006 (I left out 2007 because he only made five starts that season), when he actually improved as the game went on.

Now, imagine if Pedro could come out firing all his bullets for just one inning. If he isn’t going to represent a huge upgrade over Moyer because of his durability, and the four spots in the playoff rotation are already decided, why not turn him into a relief pitcher?

So what has to happen for Pedro to make the switch to the bullpen?

First, Pedro needs to have trouble going deep in games as a starter, posting similar numbers to Moyer. Second, Brad Lidge’s struggles in the ninth innings continue. Finally, the Marlins or Braves start winning some games, which will force Charlie Manuel to think that playoff baseball isn’t a guarantee.

At that point, I could see Charlie going back to 2007-mode, when he relied solely on his most trusted relievers to help complete the most amazing comeback in baseball history. That season, Manuel used J.C. Romero, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers for a staggering 38 appearances in the final 16 games, because they were the only guys he trusted with a lead.

This season, if Lidge, who has now given up runs in seven out of his last 14 appearances, continues to struggle, I don’t think Charlie would be hesitant to give him the hook, because as we have seen numerous times, he isn’t the type of coach to worry about salary or ego when making on-field decisions.

If Lidge isn’t getting the job done, Charlie will find someone else who can, which brings us to Myers and Pedro.

After being sidelined for more than two months with a hip injury, Myers is close to returning to the Phillies, and because of conditioning and arm-strength, he is heading straight to the bullpen. Myers loved the closer role in 2007, and last year struggled as a starter because of his desire to pitch out of the bullpen. Throw in the fact that Pedro is about as competitive as a person can be, and you have the makings of a phenomenal back-end of the bullpen.

By no means am I saying this is what will happen in the final seven weeks of the season, but don’t be surprised if Charlie goes with his gut, and Pedro and Myers are closing out games in September and October.

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Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we’ll talk about the Eagles’ first preseason game, along with the Phillies’ new pitching staff, and how long Jamie Moyer has left with the Phillies.