Gridiron trash talk starts early

What is it with New York players trying to be like Jimmy Rollins?

It seems like New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs is taking a page out of Carlos Beltran’s and Francisco Rodriguez’s books. Those two New York Mets made Rollins-esque predictions the last two offseasons—Beltran was wrong in 2008, and K-Rod will be wrong in 2009—and now Jacobs is predicting 13 wins for his team in 2009.

J-Roll was dead on about his Phillies being the team to beat in the National League East in 2007, and then again in 2008 when he predicted 100 wins for our Fightins.

So for those keeping score, Rollins has been right twice, Beltran has been wrong once, and we have two predictions coming from New York players that are incomplete.

I’ve written before that K-Rod will be wrong about his “team to beat” prediction, and I’m sure I will address it again later this season, but what about Jacobs’ very optimistic prediction?

For starters, the Giants did finish 12-4 last year, so Jacobs is really only predicting one extra win in 2009, which means that on the surface, he’s not making a completely outlandish claim.

When we delve a little deeper into his premonition though, Jacobs is probably three games off, as his Giants are, at best, a 10-6 team, which would leave the NFC East wide open for the Eagles and the always-awesome-from-September-through Thanksgiving Dallas Cowboys.

So why do I take a far different view than the 1,000-yard rusher? Simply put, the Giants lost two very key pieces from last year’s team, and neither were adequately replaced.

Starting with the obvious offseason loss, the Giants finally cut loose star wide receiver and terrible marksman Plaxico Burress.In 2008, Burress missed a total of seven games, including a 23-11 loss in the playoffs to the Eagles. The Giants won just three of those seven games, and in the process, Eli Manning tossed just five touchdowns and five interceptions, struggling to move the ball, as he had zero 200-yard passing days in December or January.

Without Burress, Manning loses his top red zone target, and the man who draws double coverage and extra eyes on most plays, leaving him with Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon and Hakeem Nicks as his only targets.

While losing Burress is a big blow to Manning and the passing game, the move that I think will really hurt the Giants this year is not re-signing Derrick Ward.

Going into the offseason, I would have guessed that if Burress wasn’t coming back, the Giants would have done everything possible to maintain their top-notch rushing attack, but they chose to let a 228-pound, 1,000-yard rusher walk away.

In addition to rushing for 1,028 yards in 2008, Ward played the role of keeping Jacobs fresh and filling in for the bruising back when his annual injury occurs, but Ward’s most important role was catching passes out of the backfield. With 41 catches and 384 yards in 2008, Ward was more productive in the passing game than Jacobs has been in his entire four-year career.

As an Eagles fan, I know the importance of having a guy who can catch passes out of the backfield, and it is even more important when the wide receivers only require single coverage. Without Burress, defenses were already going to play closer to the line of scrimmage against the Giants, and now without Ward, Manning won’t have his go-to-guy out of the backfield to pick up positive yardage when the pressure comes.

Heading into this season, Giants fans better hope that rookie Hakeem Nicks is an immediate Pro Bowl wideout, or else Manning will be the below average quarterback that we saw in December and January, and he won’t even have his safety valve in Ward out of the backfield. That means the New York offense will be riddled with stalled drives and field goal attempts instead of touchdowns, and even more of the load will be placed on the oft-injured Jacobs.

Of course, I predicted the Giants would go 8-8 last season, and they still could trade for Braylon Edwards or Anquan Boldin, so maybe Jacobs is on to something. But then again, Edwards and Boldin don’t look like they are going anywhere, so unless Osi Umenyiora comes back from his knee injury and catches touchdown passes, Jacobs will be eating his words, just like Beltran did.

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Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show, where this week we will discuss what is wrong with Jimmy Rollins, along with some NBA and NHL playoff talk.