Playoff time: Round 2

It's finally the weekend, and that means we are just hours away from more playoff football!

Early in the week, I predicted that the Eagles would beat the Giants 23-20 (in a nice throwback to the playoffs of two years ago), but after some statistical analysis, I'm very confident about the Eagles chances this weekend, and adjusted my prediction to 23-16 yesterday on the Coffee With Kahuna show on WBCB 1490 AM

If you peruse the comments section of the previous post, you'll see that I mention that Eli Manning has been below average since Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg, tossing just three touchdown passes in his last five games. That works out to just 1 TD pass for every six quarters of play, and luckily for the Eagles, that's the Eli Manning who will take the field on Sunday, not the guy who looked like a star for the first 11 games of the season.

The problem for the Giants is that nobody has really stepped up in Burress' absence, as Amani Toomer has just 9 catches in his last four games going against number 1 cornerbacks. Dominik Hixon has done well lately, but he's not anyone that will require double coverage. That means the Eagles' star-studded secondary will be trusted to shut down the receivers, while the rest of the defense will focus on stopping the run, just like in week 14, when they held the Giants to 88 yards on 24 carries.

On Sunday, I see the Eagles limiting the Giants' rushing attack and forcing Eli Manning, who has thrown for just 314 yards in two games against the Eagles this year, to make big plays and keep the Giants in the game. Based on his performance in the last 5 games, I don't think Eli has the ability to do that with his current group of receivers.

For the Eagles, they are going to need a healthy Brian Westbrook to score points on this Giants' defense. In the loss in November, Westbrook had just 26 yards rushing on 13 carries. In the win in week 14, Westbrook had 131 yards rushing, but the most important stat was his 6 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown, as Giants' linebacker Antonio Pierce was unable to keep up with Westbrook in coverage. If Westbrook is healthy, the Giants know that they will need to put at least two guys on Westbrook when he leaves the backfield, which will open things up for Donovan McNabb and the rest of the passing game. If Westbrook looks hobbled, then Pierce will be able to cover him one-on-one, and the Eagles will need to get creative to score points.


Other predictions:
Last week I went 3-1 making predictions, but I should have been 4-0 if the refs didn't hand the Chargers the game in overtime, but that's not important right now. I'm shooting for 4-0 this week, but it's going to be a lot tougher as all four games are pretty even repeats from the regular season.

Baltimore 16-6 over Tennessee: The Titans beat the Ravens 13-10 in week 5, but this is a far more dangerous Ravens team. In that game, the Ravens lost despite holding the only good part of the Titans' offense, Chris Johnson and LenDale White, to 48 yards on 21 carries. At this point in the season, Joe Flacco and the rest of the Ravens' offense are slightly more prepared for NFL defenses, and should be able to put together at least a few scoring drives. More importantly, the Ravens' defense is firing on all cylinders and forcing game-changing turnovers, led by Ed Reed, who has 10 interceptions in his last seven games. I expect this game to look a lot like the Ravens/Dolphins game last week, as the Titans will struggle to move the ball, while the Ravens' offense capitalizes off of a few turnovers.

Arizona 27-24 over Carolina: This is the prediction that I am least confident about, but I went with the Cardinals last week because of my lack of faith in their opponent's quarterback, Matt Ryan, and I'm sticking with them this week because I have even less faith in Jake Delhomme. Arizona was dominating the regular season game against Carolina until they turned the ball over three times and allowed the Panthers to steal the game. I don't see lightning striking twice for the Panthers, and I certainly don't trust Delhomme to lead the Panthers to a comeback win after the Cardinals go up early. In addition, the Cardinals held the Falcons to just 60 yards on the ground, and while I don't expect as good of a performance against the Panthers, I don't expect their defense to be gashed for 150-200 yards by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Pittsburgh 20-13 over San Diego: Pittsburgh beat the Chargers 11-10 earlier this season, and in that game, Philip Rivers was terrible, tossing two picks, while throwing for just 164 yards. I expect more of the same from Rivers against the Steelers' top ranked defense. The keys to this game will be the weather, and LaDainian Tomlinson's health. LT probably won't play, and that means Darren Sproles (who I correctly predicted would have a big game last week) will get most of the work this week, but if the field is sloppy and covered with snow, then Sproles' speed and cut-back ability will be diminished, and he will be a sitting duck for the Steelers' defenders.