On The Edge Blog


Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Get ready for some playoff hockey!

I know that it is tough to even think about other sports when Roy Halladay’s arm and the Phillies’ bats are white hot, but it is mid-April, which means that 90 percent of my mind is occupied by two words: Playoff hockey!

Yes, that exclamation point is necessary because there is nothing better in sports than playoff hockey. Every shift, every odd-man rush, every black-and-blue earned on a blocked shot, and every borderline non-call by the referees could mean the difference between going home or hoisting the most storied trophy in all of sports.

If you are still on the fence about the thrilling six weeks that make up the playoffs, imagine the intensity of the Gold Medal game between the United States and Canada, except it happens every other night and involves a team that you have been rooting for your entire life.

And, amazingly, the Flyers, despite using five goalies (and dressing two more who never played), will be taking part in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and it took literally every second of the season, including an overtime and a shootout in the 82nd game to get there.

So despite sneaking into the playoffs with almost every scorer mired in a severe slump, and a goaltender who went 9-18-3 this season, could the Flyers actually make it beyond the first round, and in the process, provide us with more than just four games of playoff hockey?

Without any of the typical Philly bias that sneaks into these columns, the answer is a resounding yes!

I fully understand the Flyers barely made the playoffs, and that they have to face the Atlantic Division champions, but the Flyers can beat the Devils in a best-of-seven series. In fact, the Flyers won five out of the six meetings this season, including a 5-1 win over New Jersey on March 28, in which Brian Boucher stopped 32 out of 33 shots, and Martin Brodeur was pulled from the game after the second period.

While Brodeur is the best goalie in NHL history, the Flyers have gotten to him quite often this year. Despite his 2.24 goals against average (GAA) this season, Brodeur has been quite pedestrian against the Flyers, allowing 19 goals in six games.

I know that Boucher has a 2.76 GAA this season, and that I hold my breath every time he has to make a save, but he doesn’t have to outplay Brodeur by himself. With Chris Pronger, Matt Carle and Kimmo Timonen playing some of the best hockey of their careers, the Flyers’ defense can shield Boucher from needing to make the tough saves, which they have been able to do lately, as Boucher has held opponents to one goal or less in four of his last seven starts.

So how do the Flyers shut down the Devils’ offense? That task starts and ends with slowing Zach Parise and Ilya Kovalchuk.

The Devils have a few players – Patrik Elias, Brian Rolston, and Dainius Zubris – who would worry me if it was 10 years ago, but only Kovalchuk and Parise need to be covered by the Pronger/Carle pairing, and hopefully the Flyers’ fourth line. Leading that fourth line is Blair Betts, who might have zeros on the stat sheet each game, but could be the difference in this series. If he can help hold Kovalchuk to a similar performance (1 goal, 1 assist) as the Rangers did in the 2007 playoffs, the Devils might not have enough scoring power to make even a stonewall performance by Brodeur matter.

On offense, Jeff Carter and his team-leading 33 goals are back in the lineup, and Simon Gagne, who I ripped two months ago for having just seven goals at the Olympic break, has scored 10 goals since then, and is playing excellent two-way hockey. While guys like Scott Hartnell, Claude Giroux and James van Riemsdyk are struggling this season, only the Capitals and Penguins scored more goals than the Flyers in the Eastern Conference.

Honestly, the Flyers may look like longshots, and according to some semi-illegal gambling Web sites, their 45-to-1 odds of winning the Stanley Cup are the second-worst of the 16 teams in the playoffs, but they might have all of the pieces necessary to make a run.

Their coach, Peter Laviolette, led the Carolina Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup and top-defenseman Chris Pronger always elevates his game this time of year, having led the eighth-seed Edmonton Oilers to the finals in 2006, and then winning the Stanley Cup with Anaheim in 2007. If the Flyers can get anything out of guys like Giroux and van Riemsdyk, this could be a dangerous team for the next six weeks.

Or they could get shut down by the best goalie in NHL history and be sent packing very quickly, but I choose to think positively.

Prediction: Flyers in six, but be prepared for a 6-1 loss at some point this series, because that is how the Flyers have been this season. They can play excellent hockey, but when they come out flat, they are simply terrible. Thankfully, it rarely carries over into the next game.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Can the Phillies get back to the World Series?

It has been five months since the Phillies fell to the Yankees in the World Series, and like most seasons, 2010 promises to be another reminder that pitching wins championships.

In 2007, the Phillies took advantage of the New York Mets’ historic collapse, but it was the trio of J.C. Romero, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers taking the ball nearly every day out of the bullpen for the entire month of September that willed the Phils into the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

In 2008, none of us will ever forget how brilliantly Cole Hamels pitched in the playoffs, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA, while Brad Lidge was as perfect as a closer could be, racking up 48 saves in 48 chances; a performance capped with a parade marching down Broad Street for the first time since 1983.

Then in 2009, despite the postseason dominance of Cliff Lee, the Phillies couldn’t come up with enough arms against the Yankees to make it a Philly repeat.

So in 2010, we all know that the Phils’ bats will keep them in the hunt, but do they have enough pitching to win in October?

I wish I could give a more definitive answer to this question, but in reality, I have no idea if they do, and I don’t think anyone could say “yes” or “no” with any certainty.

Right now, Roy Halladay is the undisputed ace of the starting rotation, but after Doc, the Phillies have some question marks.

Yes, Hamels, Joe Blanton (with Kyle Kendrick temporarily filling in due to injury), J.A. Happ and Jamie Moyer will round out the rotation, but other than Blanton’s league-average consistency, none of us can predict how the others will fare.

In the No. 2 spot in the rotation, the Phillies are counting on Hamels to shake off his disastrous 2009 campaign, in which he posted the worst ERA of his career during the regular season, and then an even worse 7.58 ERA in four playoff appearances.

It has been widely reported that Cole has been adding pitches to his repertoire, but will he actually use them during the season? I wondered last year why his curveball wasn’t used more when it was clear that his fastball was sitting at 90-mph instead of being the blazing 95-mph heater from 2008.

Hamels has always been about keeping hitters off balance with his devastating fastball-changeup combination, but when his fastball wasn’t there last year, his changeup no longer confused people, and he should have gone to his curveball to throw off hitters. Hopefully this year, Hamels will keep his composure and use some of Moyer’s teachings to get guys out when the going gets tough, instead of blaming fielders, umpires and the sun for his poor performance.

In the third spot in the rotation, we can pencil Blanton (after returning from the DL) in for an ERA of just north of 4.00, as he does seemingly every year.

Now it gets a little more dicey, as Happ, Moyer and Kendrick need to provide the Phillies with some consistency to make up for the potential of another down year from Hamels, but can they actually do it?

Since 2004, Moyer has turned in three seasons with ERAs over 4.50 and three seasons under 4.50, which means he could be awesome, as he was in 2008, or he could be bounced from the starting rotation for the second straight year.

Happ, who was very successful last season posting a 2.93 ERA, could solve the Phillies’ troubles by delivering a repeat performance and claiming the seat behind Halladay in the rotation, but like Kendrick from 2007 to 2008, he could be due for a sophomore slump if the National League’s hitters have figured out him out.

Moving to the bullpen, does anybody know if the Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde version will show up this year?

Due to injuries, Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero probably won’t head north with the Phillies. While I don’t worry about Romero’s ability to turn it on once he re-joins the big club, I am terrified to see what happens when Lidge walks through the bullpen door with a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth.

Lidge was perfect in 2008, and had excellent seasons in 2004 and 2005, but in 2009 he was terrible, blowing 11 saves in 42 chances, posting a 7.21 ERA in the process. Last season, just like in 2006 and 2007, Lidge was not “lights out,” which is why I can’t chalk up his performance in 2009 to an injured knee. Combining the 11 blown saves and 11 homers allowed in 2009 with the 19 homers and 14 blown saves from 2006 and 2007, it would appear as though 2008 was anomaly, and not the norm.

So which bullpen will show up in 2010?

In reality, it all depends on which Lidge shows up. If he lives up to his “Lights Out” nickname and pitches close to his 2008 form, then Danys Baez, Ryan Madson and Romero can fill out the low-pressure innings in front of Lidge. If Lidge blows up like he has in three of the last four years, then everyone’s role changes, and suddenly the Phillies will need big leads and 120-pitch outings from their starters.

As always, the Phillies need 92 to 95 wins to make the playoffs, and I know that 20 will come from Halladay.

Can the rest of the staff come up with 75 more?

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